Volume 7, Issue 1, January 2019, Page: 17-23
Regional Scale Dynamic Prediction of Energy Ecological Footprint and Its Influencing Factors
Luyun Liu, School of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, China
Jian Zheng, School of Architecture, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
Guo Li, School of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, China
Yan Wang, School of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, China
Received: Mar. 7, 2019;       Published: Mar. 8, 2019
DOI: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20190701.13      View  21      Downloads  13
The regional energy ecological footprint is an important evaluation index which can reveal the energy consumption on regional environmental pressure and sustainable development. First, the study relied on EEF (energy ecological footprint) method to calculate the ecological footprint, the energy ecological footprint and the ecological capacity. While STIRPAT model was applied to examine the relationship between the regional populations scale, the economic level, the industrial structure, the energy utilization technology and the energy ecological footprint. Grey prediction model was used to predict the development tendency of the energy ecological footprint in the next 10 years. The data were elicited from statistical data of regional energy consumption. The energy ecological footprint was increased to 0.3437ghm2/person from 0.1234ghm2/person during 2006-2015 in Xiangtan region. Though the energy capacity per capita increased slightly, the energy ecological footprint was kept in deficit. The level was increased to 0.2504ghm2/person from 0.073ghm2/person. The ecological pressure of the energy ecological footprint was very large. Among the influencing factors, the industrial structure contributes the most to explain the energy ecological footprint, followed by the population scale and the GDP per capita. The influence of the energy strength was minimal. The indices of energy ecological footprint, energy capacity and ecological pressure increased to 1.1205, 0.1246 and 8.9013ghm2/person, respectively. The dynamic scale of energy ecological footprint and the analysis of the influencing factors can provide a theory for sustainable development of society-economy-resources and environment.
Energy Ecological Footprint, Ecological Capacity, Dynamic Evaluation, Grey Prediction Model, Xiangtan
To cite this article
Luyun Liu, Jian Zheng, Guo Li, Yan Wang, Regional Scale Dynamic Prediction of Energy Ecological Footprint and Its Influencing Factors, International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy. Vol. 7, No. 1, 2019, pp. 17-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20190701.13
W. E. Rees, “Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity: what urban economics leaves out,” Environment and Urbanization. 4 (2): 121-130 (1992).
K. Fang, R. Heijungs, Z. Duan, et al., “The Environmental Sustainability of Nations: Benchmarking the Carbon, Water and Land Footprints against Allocated Planetary Boundaries,” Sustainability. 7: 11285-11305 (2015).
H. H. Khoo, “Review of bio-conversion pathways of lignocellulose-to-ethanol: sustainability assessment based on land footprint projections,” Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. 46: 100-119 (2015).
E. Matthew, “The Water Footprint Assessment Manual Setting the Global Standard,” Social & Environmental Accountability Journal. 31 (2): 181-182 (2011).
Q. W. Min, W. J. Jiao, S. K. Cheng, “Pollution Footprint: A Type of Ecological Footprint Based on Ecosystem Services,” Resources Science. 33 (2): 195-200 (2011).
B. P. Weidema, M. Thrane, P. Christensen et al., “Carbon Footprint,” Journal of Industrial Ecology. 12 (1): 3-6 (2008).
J. J. Ferng, “Toward a scenario analysis framework for energy footprints,” Ecological Economics. 40 (1): 53-69 (2002).
M. A. Luck, G. D. Jenerette, J. Wu et al., “The Urban Funnel Model and the Spatially Heterogeneous Ecological Footprint,” Ecosystems. 4 (8): 782-796 (2001).
T. Okadera, Y. Geng, T. Fujita et al., “Evaluating the water footprint of the energy supply of Liaoning Province, China: A regional input–output analysis approach,” Energy Policy. 78 (C): 148-157 (2015).
C. Z. Chen, Z. S. Lin, “Multiple timescale analysis and factor analysis of energy ecological footprint growth in China 1953–2006,” Energy Policy. 36 (5): 1666-1678 (2008).
A. C. Penela, C. S. Villasante, “Applying physical input–output tables of energy to estimate the energy ecological footprint (EEF) of Galicia (NW Spain),” Energy Policy. 36 (3): 1148-1163 (2008).
S. Gabriele, S. Moana et al., “Estimating the human appropriation of land in Brazil by means of an Input–Output Economic Model and Ecological Footprint analysis,” Ecological Indicators. 53 (6): 78–94 (2015).
Z. Wang, Y. Li, Z. H. Li et al., “An analysis of Carbon Footprint of Beijing Based on Input-output Model,” International Conference on Advances in Energy and Environmental Science. 1052-1058 (2013).
V. Niccolucci, A. Galli, A. Reed et al., “Towards a 3D National Ecological Footprint Geography,” Ecological Modelling. 222 (16): 2939-2944 (2011).
G. Stöglehner, “Ecological footprint—a tool for assessing sustainable energy supplies,” Journal of Cleaner Production. 11 (3): 267-277 (2003).
D. Hummel, S. Adamo, A. D. Sherbinin et al., “Inter and transdisciplinary approaches to population—environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal,” Population & Environment. 34 (4): 481-509 (2012).
M. Wackernagel, W. E. Rees, “Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth,” Population & Environment. 1 (3): 171-174 (1998).
C. Z. Chen, Z. S. Lin, “Driving forces analysis of energy ecological footprint growth fluctuation in China,” Acta Ecologica Sinica. 29 (2): 758-767 (2009).
S. Y. Cao, G. D. Xie, “Evolvement of ecological footprint model representing ecological carrying capacity,” Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology. 18 (6): 1365-72 (2007).
M. C. Liu, B. Wang, W. H. Li, “Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of China’s Development Based on the Ecological Footprint Method,” Resources Science. 32 (1): 163-170 (2012).
Y. Z. Song, B. P. Han, “Dynamic Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Its Forecast Based on GM (1, 1) in Coal Mining Area—An Case Study of Huaibei,” International Symposium on Geo-Environmental Engineering for Sustainable Development. 01: 113-118 (2007).
L. M. Wang, K. L. He, “Analysis of spatial variations in environmental impact based on the STIRPAT model—a case study of energy consumption,” Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae. 28 (5): 1032-1037 (2008).
S. C. Chang, W. T. Huang, “The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Development on Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” Econometrics of Risk. 583: 483-496 (2015).
M. Kissinger, Y. Karplus, “IPAT and the analysis of local human—environment impact processes: the case of indigenous Bedouin towns in Israel,” Environment, Development and Sustainability. 17 (1): 101-121 (2015).
Browse journals by subject